Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 76 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 06:00 → SFO 09:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 615 JFK 18:30 → SFO 22:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:21	6%	2%	1.0%	90%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	7%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	9%	3%	0.7%	74%
B6 115 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:15	10%	2%	0.7%	83%
AA 179 American Flight history →	JFK 07:58	SFO 11:19	11%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	12%	5%	0.7%	75%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	12%	3%	0.7%	73%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	13%	4%	0.8%	60%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:06	14%	5%	0.6%	67%
DL 1732 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:15	SFO 00:53	14%	6%	0.7%	64%
AS 227 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:30	SFO 12:52	14%	3%	0.7%	82%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	15%	3%	0.7%	64%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	15%	5%	0.7%	78%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SFO 11:20	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	SFO 22:40	16%	6%	0.7%	62%
AS 59 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 18:55	SFO 22:33	16%	6%	0.8%	53%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	18%	5%	0.8%	75%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:26	SFO 00:59	18%	6%	1.2%	66%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	22%	9%	0.8%	65%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:45	SFO 19:11	25%	8%	0.7%	67%
B6 615 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SFO 22:10	26%	7%	0.7%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 54m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	9h 03m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	9h 10m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON