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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 9h 35m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 10h 12m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742 3h 02m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 10h 12m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:00 → LAX 10:58DL 713 3h 34m Los Angeles LAX 14:32 → SJC 15:46DL 3822 · flown by SkyWest 10h 46m 99% 87%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 10:01 → PDX 13:13AS 19 1h 17m Portland PDX 14:30 → SJC 16:25AS 3210 · flown by SkyWest 9h 24m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 10h 52m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272 10h 12m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 3h 00m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest 11h 44m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 46m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SJC 11:59AA 3325 7h 57m 64% 50%
AmericanDetails → JFK 17:25 → DFW 20:30AA 606 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 8h 33m 69% 45%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 52m Seattle SEA 11:08 → SJC 13:20AS 335 9h 20m 67% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON