tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1966 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1966 JFK 08:00 → SJU 12:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest B6 803 JFK 15:43 → SJU 19:35 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time
Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 1966 Delta Flight history → JFK 08:00 SJU 12:00 10% 2% 0.8% 80%
DL 1877 Delta Flight history → JFK 08:04 SJU 11:57 11% 2% 0.8% 87%
DL 1961 Delta Flight history → JFK 12:45 SJU 16:38 11% 3% 0.7% 84%
DL 1859 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:29 SJU 23:53 14% 5% 0.8% 70%
B6 403 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 05:01 SJU 08:47 16% 4% 0.5% 73%
B6 903 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:15 SJU 11:09 24% 7% 0.8% 63%
B6 1603 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 12:18 SJU 16:10 27% 9% 0.8% 77%
B6 703 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 12:00 SJU 15:59 28% 10% 0.8% 65%
B6 503 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 10:00 SJU 14:14 30% 9% 0.8% 72%
B6 2903 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:29 SJU 22:45 39% 16% 0.8% 60%
B6 303 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 20:00 SJU 00:13 39% 16% 0.8% 52%
B6 803 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 15:43 SJU 19:35 46% 16% 0.8% 66%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON