Today: DL 892 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–30%.

Safest bet today DL 892 JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 71 JFK 18:17 → SLC 21:49 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 892 Delta Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SLC 09:03	5%	2%	0.2%	88%
DL 887 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:27	SLC 19:55	17%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 863 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:29	SLC 22:08	17%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 917 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:14	SLC 14:21	17%	3%	0.2%	83%
B6 71 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:17	SLC 21:49	30%	10%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 08:51 → CVG 11:08DL 4985 · flown by Endeavor	1h 22m Hebron	CVG 12:30 → SLC 14:14DL 678	7h 23m	91%	77%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 09:00 → SLC 11:20AA 2602	7h 21m	93%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON