tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:21 am at New York)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 16:41, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 161 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:20 SMF 21:49 30% 12% 0.6% 61%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 10h 17m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → JFK 15:40 → LAX 18:48AA 341 2h 56m Los Angeles LAX 21:44 → SMF 23:20AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest 10h 40m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 14:53 → LAX 17:52DL 771 3h 43m Los Angeles LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest 11h 14m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 3h 30m Seattle SEA 19:49 → SMF 21:42AS 681 11h 42m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 2h 10m Seattle SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest 10h 27m 94% 71%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:57 → SAN 20:08AS 25 1h 39m San Diego SAN 21:47 → SMF 23:32AS 1621 9h 35m 94% 69%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31 1h 46m Seattle SEA 21:55 → SMF 23:48AS 722 10h 19m 94% 68%
AmericanDetails → JFK 16:08 → DFW 18:48AA 1953 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509 10h 51m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:47 → LAX 20:45DL 738 50m Los Angeles LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest 8h 20m 64% 53%
AmericanDetails → JFK 15:30 → CLT 17:44AA 1294 47m Charlotte CLT 18:31 → SMF 21:03AA 2508 8h 33m 67% 41%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SAN 14:27AS 35 46m San Diego SAN 15:13 → SMF 17:00AS 3035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 30m 66% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON