tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 403 JFK 07:35 → SNA 10:28 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2683 JFK 08:00 → SNA 10:58 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time
Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 12% 4% 0.7% 84%
AA 2459 American Flight history → JFK 07:55 SNA 10:48 13% 3% 0.8% 91%
AA 2683 American Flight history → JFK 08:00 SNA 10:58 15% 4% 0.9% 86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 1h 35m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 39m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 8h 33m 92% 78%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 44m Phoenix PHX 11:02 → SNA 12:45AA 2454 8h 43m 93% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON