Today: DL 2093 at 14:30 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–45%.

Safest bet today DL 2093 JFK 14:30 → TPA 17:39 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest B6 2725 JFK 20:00 → TPA 23:15 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2093 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:30	TPA 17:39	23%	5%	0.6%	79%
B6 125 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:30	TPA 14:36	25%	11%	0.9%	64%
B6 225 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:54	TPA 13:31	29%	10%	0.7%	80%
DL 1636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	TPA 23:20	35%	7%	0.6%	76%worse than usual
B6 625 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:56	TPA 17:58	35%	17%	1.1%	47%
B6 2725 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	TPA 23:15	45%	15%	1.0%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON