Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:02 pm at Juneau); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: AS 445 at 20:48, 43%.

Nonstops today


AS 445 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 20:48	SEA 00:14	43%	7%	2.2%	96%worse than usual
AS 66 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 18:31	SEA 21:57	48%	8%	2.3%	83%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h ahead of Juneau). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON