tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:21 am at Los Angeles area); 4 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 54 nonstops

Today: WN 4398 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–44%.

Safest bet today WN 4398 LAX 05:10 → MDW 11:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2446 LAX 23:59 → ORD 06:17 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time
Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.
WN 4398 Southwest Flight history → LAX 05:10 MDW 11:10 5% 1% 0.1% 90%
UA 580 United Flight history → LAX 05:10 ORD 11:27 5% 1% 0.1% 98%
WN 2914 Southwest LAX 05:38 MDW 11:04 6% 1% 0.1% no record
UA 2171 United Flight history → ONT 06:10 ORD 12:25 8% 2% 0.5% 91%
AA 383 American Flight history → LAX 06:05 ORD 12:32 8% 3% 0.2% 91%
WN 3156 Southwest Flight history → BUR 07:25 MDW 13:20 8% 2% 0.3% 98%
WN 3013 Southwest LGB 07:55 MDW 13:55 9% 1% 0.2% no record
UA 1941 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 ORD 13:14 10% 2% 0.1% 91%
UA 1946 United Flight history → LAX 08:15 ORD 14:35 10% 3% 0.1% 85%
WN 884 Southwest BUR 08:10 MDW 14:10 10% 2% 0.3% no record
WN 4542 Southwest Flight history → LGB 08:15 MDW 14:05 11% 2% 0.2% 83%
UA 587 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 ORD 13:09 11% 2% 0.4% 87%
UA 2226 United Flight history → ONT 07:01 ORD 13:04 11% 3% 0.4% 76%
WN 3153 Southwest Flight history → ONT 23:55 MDW 05:40 13% 2% 0.5% 83%
AA 1598 American Flight history → LAX 08:00 ORD 14:27 14% 3% 0.2% 90%
AA 2590 American Flight history → SNA 07:45 ORD 14:08 15% 3% 0.6% 88%
DL 967 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:40 ORD 13:46 15% 4% 0.1% 85%
UA 2113 United Flight history → LAX 10:45 ORD 17:04 17% 3% 0.1% 78%
UA 2426 United Flight history → SNA 10:37 ORD 16:53 17% 4% 0.3% 79%
AA 2608 American Flight history → LAX 09:30 ORD 15:59 19% 3% 0.2% 76%
UA 353 United Flight history → LAX 22:35 ORD 04:51 19% 5% 0.6% 90%
AA 2998 American Flight history → LAX 09:38 ORD 15:47 21% 4% 0.2% 71%
UA 1962 United Flight history → LAX 23:30 ORD 05:46 22% 5% 0.6% 88%
WN 2413 Southwest Flight history → LAX 23:55 MDW 05:55 23% 4% 0.5% 86%
AA 2640 American Flight history → SNA 15:11 ORD 21:50 24% 6% 0.6% 67%
UA 212 United Flight history → LAX 17:00 ORD 23:16 24% 9% 0.6% 87%worse than usual
UA 1328 United LAX 22:58 ORD 05:02 24% 6% 0.6% no record
DL 1634 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:15 ORD 23:18 25% 9% 0.6% 67%
AA 2475 American LAX 22:49 ORD 04:56 25% 6% 1.3% no record
UA 2780 United LAX 16:39 ORD 22:43 25% 11% 0.6% no record
WN 4433 Southwest LAX 16:00 MDW 22:09 26% 6% 0.5% no record
AA 2718 American Flight history → LAX 16:25 ORD 23:00 26% 10% 1.0% 66%
AA 899 American LAX 23:24 ORD 05:34 26% 6% 1.3% no record
UA 457 United Flight history → LAX 12:50 ORD 19:05 26% 4% 0.2% 69%
AA 2679 American Flight history → SNA 11:31 ORD 18:00 26% 5% 0.6% 77%
WN 2828 Southwest LAX 12:05 MDW 18:14 26% 4% 0.1% no record
AA 1628 American Flight history → LAX 10:21 ORD 16:50 26% 4% 0.2% 52%
AA 3075 American LAX 10:26 ORD 16:35 26% 4% 0.2% no record
WN 734 Southwest Flight history → LAX 11:45 MDW 17:40 28% 4% 0.1% 55%
AA 698 American SNA 11:41 ORD 17:49 28% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 4541 Southwest Flight history → LAX 18:20 MDW 00:20 28% 8% 0.5% 37%
AA 660 American SNA 15:27 ORD 21:34 28% 6% 1.2% no record
AA 1050 American Flight history → LAX 11:40 ORD 18:12 30% 6% 0.2% 61%
AA 3028 American LAX 17:13 ORD 23:20 30% 10% 1.2% no record
AA 1433 American Flight history → LAX 17:50 ORD 00:07 30% 9% 1.2% 62%
AA 1009 American Flight history → LAX 22:45 ORD 05:09 30% 6% 1.3% 76%
UA 1352 United Flight history → SNA 14:10 ORD 20:26 31% 5% 0.3% 68%
UA 2794 United Flight history → LAX 15:11 ORD 21:19 31% 5% 0.1% 91%worse than usual
AA 3134 American Flight history → LAX 13:25 ORD 20:08 31% 7% 0.2% 58%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:24 ORD 17:35 31% 6% 0.1% 66%
UA 2487 United Flight history → LAX 14:26 ORD 20:40 33% 4% 0.2% 69%
AA 2891 American Flight history → LAX 12:21 ORD 18:33 35% 6% 0.2% 74%
AA 1998 American Flight history → LAX 13:26 ORD 19:35 37% 7% 0.2% 42%
F9 2446 Frontier Flight history → LAX 23:59 ORD 06:17 44% 16% 1.3% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON