Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 27 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 654 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 654 LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1756 LAX 18:25 → IAH 23:56 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 654 United Flight history →	LAX 05:45	IAH 11:12	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1936 United Flight history →	ONT 05:45	IAH 11:04	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 2399 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:10	HOU 10:30	5%	1%	0.5%	88%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	LAX 07:05	IAH 12:34	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 572 Southwest	LAX 05:08	HOU 10:30	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 700 United Flight history →	SNA 07:45	IAH 13:07	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 491 United Flight history →	LAX 00:51	IAH 06:12	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 1416 United Flight history →	LAX 08:10	IAH 13:40	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 277 United Flight history →	LAX 10:10	IAH 15:40	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 387 United Flight history →	LAX 19:21	IAH 00:50	9%	6%	0.6%	91%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	IAH 15:04	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 2480 Southwest	LAX 00:43	HOU 06:05	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2377 United Flight history →	LAX 15:20	IAH 20:49	10%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 2086 United Flight history →	LAX 11:54	IAH 17:22	10%	6%	0.6%	86%
WN 2483 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 08:50	HOU 14:05	11%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 2403 United Flight history →	LAX 17:45	IAH 23:14	11%	7%	0.6%	82%
UA 1591 United Flight history →	LAX 13:10	IAH 18:39	11%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 643 United Flight history →	SNA 15:05	IAH 20:27	12%	5%	0.5%	87%
WN 4868 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 09:40	HOU 14:50	13%	2%	0.5%	69%
AA 5005 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	IAH 19:43	15%	8%	0.5%	77%
UA 2050 United Flight history →	SNA 11:58	IAH 17:20	15%	6%	0.6%	64%
DL 1287 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:35	IAH 23:59	15%	7%	0.6%	85%
F9 2412 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 09:32	IAH 14:52	16%	5%	0.9%	79%
WN 2402 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 23:40	HOU 05:00	23%	5%	0.5%	67%
WN 3225 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:10	HOU 19:35	28%	6%	0.5%	24%
WN 4858 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 18:50	HOU 00:10	30%	8%	0.5%	23%
F9 1756 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:25	IAH 23:56	30%	14%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON