tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 53 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 979 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 979 LAX 07:00 → JFK 15:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 359 BUR 21:25 → JFK 05:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time
Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 979 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 7% 2% 0.6% 90%
UA 2743 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 EWR 15:37 8% 4% 0.7% 94%
UA 1403 United Flight history → LAX 06:00 EWR 14:37 8% 3% 0.7% 92%
DL 556 Delta Flight history → SNA 21:00 JFK 05:27 8% 3% 1.0% 89%
DL 915 Delta Flight history → LAX 00:14 JFK 08:16 9% 3% 0.1% 86%
B6 124 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:30 9% 3% 0.7% 93%
UA 2186 United Flight history → SNA 21:15 EWR 05:33 11% 3% 0.8% 90%
DL 960 Delta Flight history → LAX 21:00 JFK 05:16 11% 3% 0.7% 86%
AA 118 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:37 12% 4% 1.0% 85%
DL 938 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:43 JFK 15:47 12% 3% 0.6% 79%
UA 661 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 EWR 15:21 12% 3% 0.8% 91%
AA 2 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 13% 4% 0.8% 86%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 07:25 JFK 15:58 14% 5% 0.7% 80%
UA 2096 United Flight history → LAX 08:20 EWR 16:45 15% 6% 0.7% 83%
DL 676 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:45 JFK 07:03 15% 3% 0.7% 81%
AS 286 Alaska Flight history → LAX 07:03 EWR 15:06 15% 4% 0.8% 90%
DL 939 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:15 JFK 21:53 16% 6% 0.6% 73%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 00:00 JFK 08:19 16% 3% 0.3% 68%
AA 10 American Flight history → LAX 21:27 JFK 06:03 16% 6% 0.9% 85%
UA 2303 United Flight history → LAX 23:15 EWR 07:30 17% 5% 0.6% 77%
UA 2397 United Flight history → LAX 21:00 EWR 05:18 18% 5% 0.7% 88%
DL 934 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:06 JFK 17:06 18% 3% 0.6% 89%
DL 972 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:15 JFK 20:02 18% 6% 0.6% 67%
AS 233 Alaska Flight history → LAX 08:35 EWR 17:13 18% 5% 0.8% 89%
AA 307 American Flight history → LAX 08:30 JFK 17:09 19% 5% 0.8% 76%
DL 951 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:17 JFK 21:21 20% 6% 0.6% 74%
UA 1700 United Flight history → LAX 16:10 EWR 00:44 20% 8% 0.7% 84%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 15:20 JFK 23:57 20% 8% 0.7% 81%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:30 JFK 05:01 20% 10% 0.7% 83%
UA 2127 United Flight history → LAX 10:20 EWR 19:04 21% 11% 0.7% 72%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 09:49 JFK 18:25 21% 6% 0.7% 80%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 12:35 JFK 21:09 22% 9% 0.7% 82%
DL 958 Delta Flight history → LAX 10:07 JFK 18:11 22% 5% 0.6% 83%
B6 824 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 16:20 JFK 00:56 22% 11% 0.7% 83%
AA 30 American Flight history → LAX 22:23 JFK 07:00 22% 6% 0.9% 70%
UA 2227 United Flight history → LAX 12:15 EWR 20:49 23% 12% 0.7% 75%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 11:35 JFK 20:11 24% 9% 0.7% 77%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 14:30 JFK 23:10 24% 9% 0.7% 71%
AA 28 American Flight history → LAX 15:15 JFK 23:54 25% 8% 0.8% 79%
B6 454 JetBlue Flight history → ONT 23:51 JFK 08:13 25% 7% 0.7% 72%
UA 1981 United Flight history → LAX 11:15 EWR 19:30 25% 12% 0.7% 72%
UA 1855 United Flight history → LAX 13:25 EWR 21:43 26% 11% 0.7% 62%
AA 238 American Flight history → LAX 10:11 JFK 18:52 26% 9% 0.8% 71%
AA 274 American Flight history → LAX 11:55 JFK 20:36 26% 11% 0.8% 60%
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:33 EWR 05:00 26% 9% 0.8% 83%
B6 1024 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 22:25 JFK 07:00 27% 9% 0.7% 82%
AA 4 American Flight history → LAX 13:00 JFK 21:34 27% 10% 0.8% 76%
UA 1559 United Flight history → SNA 12:29 EWR 20:56 28% 13% 0.8% 64%
AA 32 American Flight history → LAX 11:05 JFK 19:46 28% 10% 0.8% 74%
AA 2683 American Flight history → SNA 11:48 JFK 20:29 28% 10% 0.9% 67%
AA 2459 American Flight history → SNA 12:31 JFK 21:04 30% 10% 0.9% 73%
B6 1874 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 10:55 EWR 19:28 31% 10% 0.8% 67%
B6 359 JetBlue Flight history → BUR 21:25 JFK 05:59 34% 10% 1.3% 72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084 1h 03m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864 7h 19m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399 1h 14m Detroit DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573 7h 24m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:00 → SFO 08:21DL 1421 51m San Francisco SFO 09:12 → JFK 17:27DL 606 7h 27m 82% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON