Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 315 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 315 LAX 06:30 → MIA 14:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3124 LAX 12:25 → MIA 20:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 315 American Flight history →	LAX 06:30	MIA 14:49	11%	5%	0.7%	90%
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	14%	5%	0.6%	87%
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	15%	5%	1.0%	77%
AA 1221 American Flight history →	LAX 22:00	MIA 06:14	16%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 2289 American Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MIA 07:18	16%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 477 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:59	FLL 07:05	16%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 2942 American Flight history →	LAX 20:52	MIA 05:01	19%	6%	0.7%	74%
B6 1700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 08:45	FLL 17:08	20%	6%	0.7%	75%
B6 1200 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	FLL 22:20	25%	10%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
AA 320 American	LAX 15:45	MIA 23:52	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 3016 American Flight history →	LAX 10:40	MIA 19:00	25%	9%	0.7%	68%
B6 1400 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:40	FLL 05:02	26%	14%	0.7%	78%
B6 700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 23:35	FLL 07:56	26%	11%	0.7%	81%
B6 100 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:05	FLL 20:25	26%	9%	0.7%	72%
AA 3124 American Flight history →	LAX 12:25	MIA 20:45	28%	10%	0.7%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 13m Houston	IAH 07:25 → MIA 11:12UA 1966	7h 21m	96%	87%
United Details →	ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936	1h 02m Houston	IAH 12:06 → FLL 15:53UA 1706	7h 08m	96%	81%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	1h 13m Houston	IAH 12:25 → PBI 15:56UA 1345	7h 11m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON