Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1016 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1016 LAX 05:01 → BWI 12:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 6 LAX 11:48 → DCA 20:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1016 Southwest	LAX 05:01	BWI 12:55	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2383 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:00	BWI 13:00	6%	1%	0.5%	76%
UA 2081 United Flight history →	LAX 06:00	IAD 14:08	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 688 United	SNA 08:24	IAD 16:34	6%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 23:30	IAD 07:33	11%	5%	0.7%	89%
UA 1573 United Flight history →	LAX 16:49	IAD 00:55	12%	6%	0.7%	92%
UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 23:05	BWI 07:14	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
WN 3143 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 21:40	BWI 05:30	13%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	13%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1635 United Flight history →	LAX 12:43	IAD 20:48	13%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 349 United Flight history →	LAX 22:41	IAD 06:47	13%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	14%	5%	0.6%	90%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	17%	6%	2.7%	83%
AA 3202 American	LAX 08:38	DCA 16:45	20%	6%	2.3%	no record
WN 2385 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:50	BWI 05:45	22%	5%	0.5%	71%
AA 1200 American Flight history →	LAX 21:01	IAD 05:00	22%	8%	0.9%	71%
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	23%	9%	2.1%	78%
WN 2384 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 13:35	BWI 21:35	24%	6%	0.5%	54%
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	25%	6%	0.7%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020	7h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 12m	92%	86%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	6h 59m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON