Today: WN 3318 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet today WN 3318 LAS 07:35 → ABQ 10:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2120 LAS 15:30 → ABQ 18:06 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3318 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	ABQ 10:10	9%	2%	0.2%	96%
WN 2231 Southwest	LAS 07:45	ABQ 10:21	10%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2175 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:45	ABQ 13:20	18%	3%	0.2%	80%
WN 2177 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:45	ABQ 00:20	25%	5%	0.5%	66%
WN 4528 Southwest	LAS 21:49	ABQ 00:25	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2053 Southwest	LAS 12:51	ABQ 15:27	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 2755 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:35	ABQ 20:10	32%	6%	0.5%	66%
WN 4498 Southwest	LAS 18:40	ABQ 21:16	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 4074 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:25	ABQ 21:55	33%	6%	0.5%	51%
WN 2120 Southwest	LAS 15:30	ABQ 18:06	37%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON