Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:51 am at Las Vegas)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2096 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:35	AMA 12:40	9%	2%	0.1%	94%
WN 186 Southwest	LAS 10:50	AMA 14:56	14%	4%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LAS 05:05 → DAL 09:45WN 2216	3h 00m Dallas	DAL 12:45 → AMA 14:11WN 1897	7h 06m	100%	88%
American Details →	LAS 06:04 → DFW 11:00AA 2932	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:21 → AMA 14:47AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	6h 43m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	LAS 06:05 → DAL 10:50WN 1361	1h 45m Dallas	DAL 12:35 → AMA 13:50WN 380	5h 45m	98%	85%
American Details →	LAS 05:02 → DFW 09:55AA 1780	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:23 → AMA 12:42AA 3384 · flown by Envoy	5h 40m	94%	84%
Southwest Details →	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	3h 21m Dallas	DAL 16:01 → AMA 17:27WN 4464	7h 37m	100%	83%
American Details →	LAS 09:27 → DFW 14:19AA 2797	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:25 → AMA 18:52AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	7h 25m	100%	82%
American Details →	LAS 12:38 → DFW 17:18AA 1482	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → AMA 22:36AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	7h 58m	98%	82%
American Details →	LAS 06:49 → DFW 11:29AA 654	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:40 → AMA 16:06AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	7h 17m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → AMA 22:36AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	5h 13m	50%	42%
Southwest Details →	LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218	50m Dallas	DAL 16:30 → AMA 17:45WN 4127	4h 55m	38%	30%
American Details →	LAS 17:03 → DFW 21:51AA 1380	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → AMA 23:59AA 1536	4h 56m	33%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON