Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:07 pm at Las Vegas); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50% (calm day: 30%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 19:39, 46% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 19:39 → SEA 21:43AS 552	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:40 +1AS 1363	8h 01m	89%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 19:39 → SEA 21:43AS 552	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:36 +1AS 703	6h 57m	66%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON