Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 755 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 755 LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2428 LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 755 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	ATL 13:00	6%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 677 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	ATL 14:05	11%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 927 Delta Flight history →	LAS 08:26	ATL 15:25	13%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 857 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:33	ATL 07:18	13%	3%	0.8%	74%
DL 777 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:41	ATL 17:45	15%	3%	0.7%	82%
WN 2237 Southwest	LAS 00:05	ATL 06:56	15%	2%	0.2%	no record
DL 748 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:41	ATL 18:47	15%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 879 Delta Flight history →	LAS 22:00	ATL 05:00	16%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:12	ATL 20:24	16%	4%	0.7%	84%
WN 4482 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:25	ATL 15:25	18%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 591 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:38	ATL 21:49	18%	5%	0.7%	80%
WN 2493 Southwest	LAS 10:40	ATL 17:39	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1116 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:40	ATL 13:50	22%	6%	0.8%	81%
WN 2179 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:50	ATL 05:45	28%	4%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
F9 2428 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 23:50	ATL 06:59	39%	14%	1.3%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON