Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3569 at 19:25, 38%.

Safest bet today WN 3569 LAS 19:25 → AUS 00:10 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time Riskiest WN 4267 LAS 12:37 → AUS 16:43 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3569 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:25	AUS 00:10	38%	10%	0.2%	34%
WN 2186 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:25	AUS 01:10	42%	12%	0.2%	53%
WN 4532 Southwest	LAS 16:33	AUS 21:15	43%	10%	0.2%	no record
DL 2260 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:16	AUS 22:06	43%	12%	0.2%	70%worse than usual
WN 2184 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:55	AUS 21:45	44%	9%	0.2%	66%
DL 2444 Delta	LAS 17:27	AUS 22:11	46%	13%	0.2%	no record
WN 4642 Southwest	LAS 20:55	AUS 01:38	46%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 4357 Southwest	LAS 19:50	AUS 00:33	46%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 410 Southwest	LAS 15:03	AUS 19:47	47%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 2183 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:00	AUS 19:50	48%	10%	0.2%	35%
WN 4267 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:37	AUS 16:43	51%	9%	0.2%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON