Today: WN 2251 at 23:28 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–38%.

Safest bet today WN 2251 LAS 23:28 → BNA 05:04 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4427 LAS 18:00 → BNA 23:36 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2251 Southwest	LAS 23:28	BNA 05:04	26%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 2191 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 23:25	BNA 05:00	26%	4%	0.2%	82%
WN 2248 Southwest	LAS 16:17	BNA 21:52	38%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 4427 Southwest	LAS 18:00	BNA 23:36	38%	8%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON