Today: WN 2192 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–44%.

Safest bet today WN 2192 LAS 08:35 → BOI 11:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3072 LAS 16:10 → BOI 18:59 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2192 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:35	BOI 11:25	9%	1%	0.1%	91%
WN 2301 Southwest	LAS 09:15	BOI 12:06	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 2253 Southwest	LAS 22:15	BOI 01:06	24%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 1933 Frontier	LAS 11:02	BOI 14:01	36%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 1102 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:35	BOI 21:15	37%	8%	0.5%	27%
WN 3072 Southwest	LAS 16:10	BOI 18:59	44%	6%	0.1%	no record
AS 2182 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 17:52	BOI 20:43	29%	12%	3.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON