Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 189 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 189 LAS 06:20 → BUR 07:36 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1195 LAS 16:00 → BUR 17:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 189 Southwest	LAS 06:20	BUR 07:36	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2196 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:40	BUR 07:45	4%	1%	0.8%	92%
WN 1285 Southwest	LAS 07:15	BUR 08:31	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3327 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:45	BUR 09:00	6%	2%	0.8%	100%
WN 2256 Southwest	LAS 09:26	BUR 10:42	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2198 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:40	BUR 10:55	8%	2%	0.8%	94%
WN 1529 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:55	BUR 12:10	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
WN 4037 Southwest	LAS 10:36	BUR 11:52	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2258 Southwest	LAS 11:16	BUR 12:32	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4184 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:55	BUR 13:10	20%	5%	0.8%	31%
WN 237 Southwest	LAS 12:23	BUR 13:39	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2203 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:10	BUR 14:25	23%	5%	0.7%	82%
WN 2202 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:55	BUR 21:10	25%	9%	0.7%	69%
F9 4107 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:18	BUR 12:40	25%	10%	1.2%	89%worse than usual
WN 2201 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:55	BUR 19:05	26%	8%	0.7%	71%
WN 2163 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:45	BUR 21:55	28%	10%	0.7%	56%
WN 2152 Southwest	LAS 14:27	BUR 15:43	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4540 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:40	BUR 15:50	31%	6%	0.8%	65%
F9 1195 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:00	BUR 17:15	37%	14%	1.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON