Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2204 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2204 LAS 06:50 → BWI 14:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2205 LAS 14:35 → BWI 22:10 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2204 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:50	BWI 14:25	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 2262 Southwest	LAS 06:51	BWI 14:17	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2206 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:30	BWI 00:10	22%	5%	0.5%	59%
WN 1069 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:10	BWI 05:45	24%	4%	0.5%	83%
WN 235 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:10	BWI 19:50	31%	5%	0.5%	56%
WN 1004 Southwest	LAS 12:25	BWI 19:54	32%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 575 Southwest	LAS 14:02	BWI 21:36	33%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2205 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:35	BWI 22:10	34%	6%	0.5%	45%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAS 06:45 → STL 11:55WN 2368	1h 06m St Louis	STL 13:01 → BWI 16:14WN 4047	6h 29m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	LAS 08:50 → IND 15:30WN 3258	1h 10m Indianapolis	IND 16:40 → BWI 18:25WN 4536	6h 35m	93%	79%
Southwest Details →	LAS 06:45 → BNA 12:20WN 2188	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 13:25 → BWI 16:15WN 2994	6h 30m	94%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON