Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 392 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 392 LAS 07:30 → BZN 10:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 2266 LAS 19:13 → BZN 22:16 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 392 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:30	BZN 10:35	7%	2%	0.1%	77%
WN 992 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:05	BZN 01:15	18%	4%	0.4%	52%
WN 2387 Southwest	LAS 12:30	BZN 15:33	22%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 2266 Southwest	LAS 19:13	BZN 22:16	26%	6%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON