Today: UA 2235 at 13:06 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–45%.

Safest bet today UA 2235 LAS 13:06 → CLE 20:28 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3232 LAS 14:37 → CLE 21:54 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 2235 United	LAS 13:06	CLE 20:28	31%	7%	0.3%	no record
F9 1822 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 23:21	CLE 06:39	33%	10%	1.2%	63%
WN 747 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:50	CLE 19:50	35%	4%	0.1%	49%
WN 2267 Southwest	LAS 13:21	CLE 20:25	35%	5%	0.1%	no record
F9 3232 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:37	CLE 21:54	45%	11%	0.6%	77%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 09:32 → MSP 14:39DL 630	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:39 → CLE 18:31DL 1449	5h 59m	85%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON