Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2212 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2212 LAS 07:40 → CMH 14:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4750 LAS 13:32 → CMH 20:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2212 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:40	CMH 14:40	14%	3%	0.2%	88%
WN 1738 Southwest	LAS 07:50	CMH 14:42	15%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 854 Southwest	LAS 18:05	CMH 01:00	33%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 873 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:30	CMH 01:30	33%	8%	0.5%	36%
WN 4750 Southwest	LAS 13:32	CMH 20:25	37%	6%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAS 06:30 → DEN 09:20WN 2966	1h 10m Denver	DEN 10:30 → CMH 15:17WN 1571	5h 47m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON