Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 31–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2214 LAS 22:25 → COS 01:20 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest WN 4487 LAS 19:50 → COS 22:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2214 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:25	COS 01:20	31%	7%	0.1%	65%
WN 2272 Southwest	LAS 21:25	COS 00:18	31%	10%	0.1%	no record
WN 2171 Southwest	LAS 13:19	COS 15:39	33%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 4487 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:50	COS 22:45	35%	9%	0.1%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON