tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: DL 2794 at 22:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2794 Delta Flight history → LAS 22:55 CVG 05:42 16% 3% 0.8% 92%
F9 3412 Frontier Flight history → LAS 00:07 CVG 07:03 39% 11% 0.9% 74%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:59 → ORD 06:45AA 2949 3h 45m Chicago ORD 10:30 → CVG 13:01AA 4412 · flown by Republic 9h 02m 100% 93%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:33 → ORD 18:44AA 3039 3h 16m Chicago ORD 22:00 → CVG 00:30 +1AA 4776 · flown by Republic 8h 57m 95% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:57 → IAH 06:14UA 2009 1h 16m Houston IAH 07:30 → CVG 10:59UA 6312 · flown by Mesa 7h 02m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:54DL 2834 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954 6h 18m 92% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:44 → MSP 16:54DL 2272 3h 26m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 8h 27m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 28m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → CVG 15:39DL 3113 6h 20m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:40 → ORD 15:42AA 2020 3h 47m Chicago ORD 19:29 → CVG 22:00AA 3690 · flown by Envoy 9h 20m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 03m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:07 → CLT 21:32AA 2470 58m Charlotte CLT 22:30 → CVG 23:58AA 626 6h 51m 55% 39%
FrontierDetails → LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:43F9 1650 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 06:32 → CVG 09:57F9 4280 5h 58m 44% 37%
FrontierDetails → LAS 12:27 → MCO 20:23F9 1728 1h 01m Orlando MCO 21:24 → CVG 23:46F9 1713 8h 19m 56% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON