Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2216 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2216 LAS 05:05 → DAL 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1326 LAS 15:13 → DAL 19:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2216 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 05:05	DAL 09:45	5%	1%	0.7%	88%
WN 1361 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:05	DAL 10:50	6%	1%	0.7%	85%
WN 382 Southwest	LAS 04:58	DAL 09:38	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 670 Southwest	LAS 06:39	DAL 11:21	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1317 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:50	DAL 12:40	13%	2%	0.6%	64%
WN 745 Southwest	LAS 07:50	DAL 12:32	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2273 Southwest	LAS 09:03	DAL 13:44	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2218 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:50	DAL 15:40	21%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 3231 Southwest	LAS 10:18	DAL 15:00	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2220 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:20	DAL 22:10	22%	6%	0.7%	72%
WN 1260 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:30	DAL 21:15	23%	6%	0.7%	28%
WN 2221 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:45	DAL 23:30	26%	9%	0.7%	34%
WN 2219 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:20	DAL 18:10	30%	5%	0.7%	55%
WN 1347 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:48	DAL 18:29	31%	5%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
WN 4489 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:40	DAL 19:25	33%	6%	0.7%	55%
WN 1326 Southwest	LAS 15:13	DAL 19:54	33%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON