Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 28–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4360 LAS 09:25 → DCA 16:52 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1525 LAS 12:18 → DCA 20:07 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4360 Southwest	LAS 09:25	DCA 16:52	28%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1241 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:10	DCA 16:45	30%	5%	0.5%	55%
AA 2019 American Flight history →	LAS 11:13	DCA 19:00	33%	9%	1.8%	76%
AA 1525 American	LAS 12:18	DCA 20:07	35%	9%	1.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAS 06:45 → STL 11:55WN 2368	1h 20m St Louis	STL 13:15 → DCA 16:25WN 3522	6h 40m	98%	79%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	58m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	6h 29m	93%	73%
Southwest Details →	LAS 05:05 → DAL 09:45WN 2216	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 10:45 → DCA 14:37WN 4418	6h 32m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON