Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2223 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2223 LAS 05:05 → DEN 07:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 3540 LAS 14:53 → DEN 18:00 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2223 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 05:05	DEN 07:55	3%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 2277 Southwest	LAS 05:15	DEN 08:07	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2966 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:30	DEN 09:20	6%	1%	0.6%	100%
UA 596 United Flight history →	LAS 05:30	DEN 08:32	6%	2%	0.5%	98%
WN 756 Southwest	LAS 06:50	DEN 09:41	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 247 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:55	DEN 11:50	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 868 Southwest	LAS 08:08	DEN 11:00	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1315 United Flight history →	LAS 09:37	DEN 12:41	11%	4%	0.5%	93%
WN 2280 Southwest	LAS 10:33	DEN 13:25	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAS 11:54	DEN 15:05	14%	6%	0.5%	91%
WN 2226 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:40	DEN 14:40	18%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 1323 United Flight history →	LAS 13:36	DEN 16:40	18%	6%	0.5%	77%
F9 4968 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:15	DEN 11:19	18%	7%	0.8%	86%
UA 1291 United Flight history →	LAS 18:10	DEN 21:11	20%	9%	0.6%	77%
WN 2230 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:50	DEN 00:45	20%	5%	0.6%	49%
WN 2227 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:40	DEN 15:35	20%	5%	0.6%	48%
F9 1766 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:36	DEN 12:38	22%	9%	0.8%	79%
UA 2108 United Flight history →	LAS 16:25	DEN 19:30	22%	8%	0.5%	73%
WN 2969 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:55	DEN 20:50	24%	6%	0.6%	53%
F9 2016 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DEN 03:48	25%	9%	0.8%	76%
WN 1764 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:15	DEN 19:15	26%	6%	0.6%	48%
F9 2350 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:43	DEN 14:44	26%	9%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
WN 3843 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:30	DEN 21:25	27%	6%	0.6%	50%
WN 1382 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:00	DEN 18:00	28%	5%	0.6%	43%
F9 1994 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:34	DEN 21:41	35%	11%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
F9 3540 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:53	DEN 18:00	39%	11%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON