Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2932 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2932 LAS 06:05 → DFW 11:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1052 LAS 14:22 → DFW 19:26 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2932 American Flight history →	LAS 06:05	DFW 11:01	11%	3%	2.1%	94%
AA 1780 American Flight history →	LAS 05:02	DFW 09:55	13%	4%	2.1%	89%
AA 654 American Flight history →	LAS 06:50	DFW 11:30	15%	5%	1.6%	86%
AA 617 American Flight history →	LAS 07:13	DFW 12:06	15%	5%	2.1%	89%
AA 1241 American Flight history →	LAS 08:00	DFW 12:53	18%	6%	2.1%	81%
F9 3978 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:00	DFW 10:57	19%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 1378 American	LAS 00:09	DFW 04:39	19%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 1908 American Flight history →	LAS 08:49	DFW 13:37	19%	5%	2.1%	87%
AA 2797 American Flight history →	LAS 09:28	DFW 14:20	21%	6%	1.3%	94%worse than usual
AA 1584 American Flight history →	LAS 10:11	DFW 15:08	21%	7%	2.0%	87%
AA 2921 American Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DFW 05:44	22%	6%	1.8%	81%
F9 3886 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:47	DFW 13:34	24%	7%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AA 3099 American Flight history →	LAS 23:59	DFW 04:44	25%	6%	1.3%	74%
F9 1650 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DFW 05:43	33%	10%	1.0%	77%worse than usual
AA 3285 American Flight history →	LAS 12:47	DFW 17:49	33%	10%	1.3%	69%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	LAS 15:23	DFW 20:24	34%	9%	1.3%	66%
AA 777 American Flight history →	LAS 14:02	DFW 19:03	35%	9%	1.3%	73%
AA 3286 American Flight history →	LAS 16:53	DFW 21:49	35%	10%	1.3%	65%
F9 1052 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:22	DFW 19:26	39%	14%	0.8%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON