Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 864 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 864 LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1782 LAS 12:50 → DTW 19:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 864 Delta Flight history →	LAS 05:50	DTW 12:44	5%	2%	0.4%	94%
DL 470 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:59	DTW 16:58	15%	2%	0.8%	91%
DL 502 Delta Flight history →	LAS 23:10	DTW 06:03	18%	3%	0.7%	61%
DL 334 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:27	DTW 18:26	22%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 778 Delta Flight history →	LAS 15:11	DTW 22:17	25%	4%	0.7%	77%
F9 2802 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 23:59	DTW 07:00	28%	12%	0.7%	70%
WN 1849 Southwest	LAS 12:30	DTW 19:23	31%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1782 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:50	DTW 19:50	33%	5%	0.5%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON