Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 3163 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet today WN 3163 LAS 07:35 → ELP 10:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 3450 LAS 16:22 → ELP 19:19 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3163 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:35	ELP 10:20	8%	1%	0.2%	90%
WN 1889 Southwest	LAS 07:50	ELP 10:40	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4340 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:55	ELP 00:45	22%	6%	0.5%	52%
WN 4563 Southwest	LAS 22:15	ELP 01:04	22%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4260 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:45	ELP 20:30	30%	7%	0.5%	54%
WN 1204 Southwest	LAS 15:07	ELP 17:56	31%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 3450 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:22	ELP 19:19	35%	11%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON