Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:43 am at Las Vegas)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2234 at 12:00, 28%.

Nonstops today


WN 2234 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:00	EUG 14:05	28%	9%	0.4%	71%
WN 2065 Southwest	LAS 13:05	EUG 15:13	35%	9%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 17:00 → SLC 19:25DL 1672	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 02m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	LAS 15:50 → SMF 17:25WN 1308	3h 00m Sacramento	SMF 20:25 → EUG 21:50WN 291	6h 00m	100%	72%
American Details →	LAS 16:34 → PHX 17:48AA 3186	2h 52m Phoenix	PHX 20:40 → EUG 23:17AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 43m	96%	68%
Southwest Details →	LAS 18:30 → SMF 20:05WN 4032	1h 57m Sacramento	SMF 22:02 → EUG 23:31WN 3712	5h 01m	89%	68%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	2h 55m Denver	DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303	7h 45m	96%	66%
Alaska Details →	LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467	1h 10m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	4h 23m	88%	65%
Alaska Details →	LAS 11:30 → SEA 14:14AS 785	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → EUG 18:58AS 3199 · flown by SkyWest	7h 28m	97%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 14:06 → SEA 16:36AS 629	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → EUG 18:58AS 3199 · flown by SkyWest	4h 52m	60%	40%
United Details →	LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799	54m San Francisco	SFO 16:10 → EUG 17:56UA 5604 · flown by SkyWest	4h 22m	55%	34%
Delta Details →	LAS 19:06 → SEA 21:49DL 2956	46m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	4h 45m	31%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON