Today: G4 4 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet today G4 4 LAS 06:40 → FAT 08:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2235 LAS 15:40 → FAT 17:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G4 4 Allegiant	LAS 06:40	FAT 08:03	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 1423 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:35	FAT 10:55	11%	3%	0.2%	90%
WN 1703 Southwest	LAS 09:36	FAT 10:57	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 779 Southwest	LAS 22:15	FAT 23:36	22%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 407 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:50	FAT 00:10	22%	9%	0.5%	31%
G4 32 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 11:59	FAT 13:16	22%	8%	0.6%	85%
G4 51 Allegiant	LAS 19:02	FAT 20:25	26%	10%	0.6%	no record
G4 27 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 13:24	FAT 14:41	30%	10%	0.6%	62%
WN 4689 Southwest	LAS 15:25	FAT 16:46	32%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 2235 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:40	FAT 17:00	33%	7%	0.5%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON