Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 658 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–39%.

Safest bet that day B6 658 LAS 07:00 → FLL 14:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 708 LAS 11:36 → FLL 19:29 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 658 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 07:00	FLL 14:56	18%	6%	0.6%	86%
B6 608 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 22:35	FLL 06:29	37%	12%	0.7%	71%
B6 1708 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 11:13	FLL 19:17	37%	10%	0.6%	76%worse than usual
B6 708 JetBlue	LAS 11:36	FLL 19:29	39%	10%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47UA 2188	7h 17m	97%	82%
United Details →	LAS 08:00 → IAH 13:07UA 1181	1h 13m Houston	IAH 14:20 → FLL 18:07UA 462	7h 07m	92%	73%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	55m Houston	IAH 12:06 → FLL 15:53UA 1706	6h 53m	89%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON