Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2051 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2051 LAS 05:10 → HOU 10:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 334 LAS 11:27 → HOU 16:26 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2051 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 05:10	HOU 10:10	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 197 Southwest	LAS 05:05	HOU 10:05	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2298 Southwest	LAS 07:40	HOU 12:42	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 981 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:45	HOU 12:55	14%	2%	0.5%	76%
WN 2305 Southwest	LAS 00:47	HOU 05:49	20%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2243 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:10	HOU 20:20	27%	5%	0.5%	37%
WN 2244 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:55	HOU 00:55	27%	6%	0.5%	57%
WN 4498 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:50	HOU 23:55	28%	6%	0.5%	46%
WN 4724 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:25	HOU 16:35	30%	3%	0.5%	76%
WN 334 Southwest	LAS 11:27	HOU 16:26	31%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON