Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2608 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2608 LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1966 LAS 14:28 → IAH 19:58 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2608 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	IAH 11:11	8%	2%	0.4%	95%
UA 2009 United Flight history →	LAS 00:57	IAH 06:13	16%	4%	0.4%	91%
UA 1994 United	LAS 07:38	IAH 12:37	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2840 United Flight history →	LAS 00:59	IAH 05:59	17%	4%	0.4%	78%
UA 1181 United Flight history →	LAS 08:00	IAH 13:07	19%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 1711 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	IAH 15:40	19%	5%	0.7%	91%
UA 1627 United	LAS 12:21	IAH 17:37	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2492 United Flight history →	LAS 12:14	IAH 17:25	28%	8%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
UA 2449 United Flight history →	LAS 16:43	IAH 21:57	28%	9%	0.7%	78%
UA 1864 United	LAS 16:37	IAH 21:37	30%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAS 15:40	IAH 20:55	30%	9%	0.7%	74%
F9 4132 Frontier	LAS 09:30	IAH 14:45	31%	9%	1.2%	no record
F9 1490 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:53	IAH 06:07	37%	10%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
F9 1966 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:28	IAH 19:58	41%	15%	1.2%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON