Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2246 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2246 LAS 07:25 → IND 14:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4706 LAS 14:05 → IND 20:40 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2246 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:25	IND 14:05	9%	2%	0.1%	98%
WN 3258 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:50	IND 15:30	14%	3%	0.4%	89%
WN 2307 Southwest	LAS 08:00	IND 14:30	15%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2308 Southwest	LAS 12:15	IND 18:47	31%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 4691 Southwest	LAS 18:15	IND 00:49	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 4762 Southwest	LAS 14:35	IND 21:07	34%	7%	0.4%	no record
WN 4706 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:05	IND 20:40	34%	8%	0.4%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON