Today: DL 1159 at 23:43 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–26%.

Safest bet today DL 1159 LAS 23:43 → JFK 07:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 948 LAS 23:59 → JFK 08:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1159 Delta	LAS 23:43	JFK 07:28	14%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 498 Delta Flight history →	LAS 23:30	JFK 07:25	15%	4%	0.4%	64%
AA 1356 American	LAS 23:07	JFK 06:51	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 556 American Flight history →	LAS 22:46	JFK 07:00	16%	6%	0.4%	84%
B6 948 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 23:59	JFK 08:00	26%	12%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON