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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 42 nonstops

Today: WN 2312 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–46%.

Safest bet today WN 2312 LAS 05:40 → LAX 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2218 LAS 14:26 → LAX 15:39 · 47% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2312 Southwest LAS 05:40 LAX 06:55 3% 1% 0.2% no record
WN 2251 Southwest Flight history → LAS 06:55 LAX 08:10 7% 1% 0.2% 91%
UA 2039 United Flight history → LAS 06:00 LAX 07:14 8% 1% 0.2% 97%
DL 553 Delta Flight history → LAS 06:52 LAX 08:00 10% 2% 0.5% 94%
WN 973 Southwest Flight history → LAS 09:00 LAX 10:15 14% 2% 0.2% 83%
F9 3291 Frontier Flight history → LAS 06:21 LAX 07:44 15% 4% 0.7% 82%
DL 2253 Delta Flight history → LAS 09:48 LAX 11:02 17% 3% 0.3% 92%
UA 2808 United LAS 08:25 LAX 09:43 17% 4% 0.2% no record
UA 203 United Flight history → LAS 10:45 LAX 12:05 17% 4% 0.2% 94%worse than usual
DL 1071 Delta Flight history → LAS 09:46 LAX 11:00 17% 3% 0.3% 87%
AA 2690 American Flight history → LAS 07:23 LAX 08:39 18% 4% 0.4% 85%
WN 2313 Southwest LAS 10:20 LAX 11:34 19% 4% 0.2% no record
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAS 10:04 LAX 11:24 20% 7% 0.3% 93%worse than usual
UA 2316 United Flight history → LAS 10:39 LAX 11:54 21% 5% 0.2% 90%worse than usual
DL 1696 Delta Flight history → LAS 13:08 LAX 14:24 23% 5% 0.7% 75%
UA 2282 United Flight history → LAS 20:31 LAX 21:55 28% 10% 0.7% 77%
DL 2120 Delta Flight history → LAS 17:41 LAX 18:55 30% 6% 0.8% 79%
DL 1703 Delta LAS 17:34 LAX 18:47 30% 7% 0.8% no record
DL 797 Delta LAS 20:47 LAX 22:01 30% 6% 0.8% no record
UA 2184 United Flight history → LAS 14:15 LAX 15:35 31% 10% 0.6% 83%worse than usual
UA 1803 United LAS 16:14 LAX 17:29 31% 12% 0.6% no record
DL 2288 Delta Flight history → LAS 19:06 LAX 20:16 33% 6% 0.8% 78%worse than usual
UA 5612 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAS 18:58 LAX 20:28 34% 11% 0.7% 89%worse than usual
WN 2314 Southwest LAS 13:12 LAX 14:26 35% 6% 0.5% no record
WN 2318 Southwest LAS 22:48 LAX 00:02 35% 6% 0.5% no record
WN 1056 Southwest Flight history → LAS 22:25 LAX 23:45 35% 7% 0.5% 50%
AA 6190 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAS 17:22 LAX 18:39 35% 13% 0.7% 79%worse than usual
F9 2263 Frontier Flight history → LAS 13:58 LAX 15:20 36% 14% 0.7% 89%worse than usual
WN 481 Southwest LAS 20:36 LAX 21:51 37% 7% 0.5% no record
F9 1183 Frontier Flight history → LAS 17:14 LAX 18:37 37% 16% 0.8% 79%worse than usual
AA 4946 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAS 18:03 LAX 19:23 37% 13% 0.7% 59%
WN 255 Southwest Flight history → LAS 14:15 LAX 15:30 39% 6% 0.5% 54%
WN 4500 Southwest Flight history → LAS 15:50 LAX 17:10 40% 7% 0.5% 62%
WN 2255 Southwest Flight history → LAS 18:30 LAX 19:45 41% 8% 0.5% 76%worse than usual
WN 391 Southwest LAS 17:25 LAX 18:39 41% 8% 0.6% no record
WN 2316 Southwest LAS 18:55 LAX 20:09 41% 8% 0.6% no record
F9 2333 Frontier Flight history → LAS 18:56 LAX 20:14 41% 15% 0.8% 64%
WN 936 Southwest LAS 15:32 LAX 16:46 44% 6% 0.5% no record
AA 1399 American Flight history → LAS 19:25 LAX 20:41 44% 10% 1.2% 69%worse than usual
AA 2039 American Flight history → LAS 14:36 LAX 15:54 44% 11% 0.9% 59%
AA 2477 American LAS 19:44 LAX 20:57 46% 9% 1.2% no record
AA 2218 American LAS 14:26 LAX 15:39 47% 10% 1.2% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON