Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4375 at 09:53 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4375 LAS 09:53 → LGB 11:06 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3061 LAS 14:30 → LGB 15:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4375 Southwest	LAS 09:53	LGB 11:06	13%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2260 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:35	LGB 12:45	21%	3%	0.4%	94%worse than usual
WN 2031 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:00	LGB 21:10	25%	5%	0.5%	70%
WN 1322 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:05	LGB 19:15	33%	8%	0.5%	35%
WN 3061 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:30	LGB 15:40	33%	7%	0.4%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON