tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 1277 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1277 Southwest Flight history → LAS 09:50 MAF 14:00 15% 2% 0.6% 88%
WN 4331 Southwest LAS 13:05 MAF 17:15 28% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:57 → IAH 06:14UA 2009 3h 21m Houston IAH 09:35 → MAF 11:07UA 6186 · flown by Mesa 8h 10m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 3h 24m Houston IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 8h 15m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 05:05 → DAL 09:45WN 2216 2h 00m Dallas DAL 11:45 → MAF 12:55WN 4579 5h 50m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 08:00 → IAH 13:07UA 1181 3h 28m Houston IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa 8h 15m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:59 → IAH 05:59UA 2840 1h 21m Houston IAH 07:20 → MAF 08:52UA 6263 · flown by Mesa 5h 53m 89% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:28 → DFW 14:21AA 2797 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 5h 25m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 06:05 → DAL 10:50WN 1361 1h 26m Dallas DAL 12:16 → MAF 13:36WN 1394 5h 31m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:47 → DFW 17:49AA 3285 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:35 → MAF 19:50AA 3657 · flown by Envoy 5h 03m 45% 33%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:53 → DFW 21:49AA 3286 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:35 → MAF 23:59AA 5168 · flown by PSA 5h 06m 48% 33%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218 51m Dallas DAL 16:31 → MAF 17:54WN 1395 5h 04m 48% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON