Today: WN 2326 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–49%.

Safest bet today WN 2326 LAS 06:35 → MCI 11:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4506 LAS 16:56 → MCI 21:53 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2326 Southwest	LAS 06:35	MCI 11:26	7%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 1458 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:10	MCI 11:55	10%	2%	0.1%	76%
WN 2323 Southwest	LAS 07:45	MCI 12:35	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 5120 Southwest	LAS 08:32	MCI 13:23	14%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 5119 Southwest	LAS 09:47	MCI 14:38	17%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 786 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:05	MCI 14:55	18%	3%	0.2%	100%worse than usual
WN 3413 Southwest	LAS 20:35	MCI 01:27	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2328 Southwest	LAS 14:11	MCI 19:02	36%	8%	0.1%	no record
WN 4748 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:00	MCI 20:45	37%	6%	0.5%	48%
WN 3762 Southwest	LAS 19:05	MCI 23:57	37%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3079 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:35	MCI 19:25	37%	7%	0.1%	66%
WN 2166 Southwest	LAS 15:36	MCI 20:28	38%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 5111 Southwest	LAS 17:01	MCI 21:53	39%	6%	0.5%	no record
F9 4506 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:56	MCI 21:53	49%	12%	1.2%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON