Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1487 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1487 LAS 06:30 → MDW 12:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2840 LAS 16:20 → MDW 21:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1487 Southwest	LAS 06:30	MDW 12:01	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2336 Southwest	LAS 08:16	MDW 13:50	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2338 Southwest	LAS 00:10	MDW 05:40	14%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2276 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 23:55	MDW 05:25	16%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 4506 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:20	MDW 16:50	25%	3%	0.6%	56%
WN 759 Southwest	LAS 12:16	MDW 17:49	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3200 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:55	MDW 01:30	30%	6%	0.6%	28%
WN 2274 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:05	MDW 21:45	33%	6%	0.6%	50%
WN 2840 Southwest	LAS 16:20	MDW 21:54	33%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON