Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2404 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2404 LAS 06:00 → MIA 13:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1490 LAS 11:52 → MIA 19:40 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2404 American Flight history →	LAS 06:00	MIA 13:53	9%	4%	0.2%	84%
AA 803 American	LAS 06:04	MIA 13:54	9%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 2025 American Flight history →	LAS 23:35	MIA 07:40	24%	5%	1.2%	72%
AA 1080 American Flight history →	LAS 22:25	MIA 06:30	30%	5%	1.2%	86%worse than usual
F9 4552 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 22:29	MIA 06:30	35%	13%	0.7%	74%
AA 1105 American Flight history →	LAS 12:45	MIA 20:41	41%	6%	1.0%	80%worse than usual
AA 751 American	LAS 13:31	MIA 21:31	41%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1490 American	LAS 11:52	MIA 19:40	46%	6%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAS 00:59 → DFW 05:44AA 2921	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	7h 12m	86%	72%
Southwest Details →	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 13:55 → MIA 17:45WN 2929	6h 55m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	LAS 08:26 → ATL 15:25DL 927	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:23DL 719	6h 57m	86%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON