Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1282 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 1282 LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4746 LAS 13:58 → MSP 19:17 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1282 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:19	MSP 11:22	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2261 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:30	MSP 14:37	11%	3%	0.6%	97%
DL 630 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:32	MSP 14:39	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2834 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:45	MSP 05:53	16%	3%	0.1%	90%
DL 2262 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:56	MSP 17:04	17%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 2272 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:44	MSP 16:54	18%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1542 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:20	MSP 22:31	18%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 2238 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	MSP 18:42	21%	4%	0.6%	79%
F9 4746 Frontier	LAS 13:58	MSP 19:17	42%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON