Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4605 at 22:21, 39%.

Safest bet today WN 4605 LAS 22:21 → OAK 00:00 · 39% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5050 LAS 18:00 → OAK 19:35 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4605 Southwest	LAS 22:21	OAK 00:00	39%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 294 Southwest	LAS 21:21	OAK 23:00	42%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 2289 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:55	OAK 23:30	45%	11%	0.2%	50%
F9 3837 Frontier	LAS 16:17	OAK 18:04	46%	18%	1.5%	no record
WN 596 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:45	OAK 00:20	49%	18%	0.2%	36%
WN 2351 Southwest	LAS 18:15	OAK 19:53	50%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 4270 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:50	OAK 21:25	50%	14%	0.2%	54%
WN 2350 Southwest	LAS 17:25	OAK 19:03	50%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 2286 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:10	OAK 18:45	53%	11%	0.2%	67%worse than usual
WN 5050 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:00	OAK 19:35	55%	14%	0.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON