Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 344 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet today WN 344 LAS 07:50 → OKC 12:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 2356 LAS 14:20 → OKC 18:50 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 344 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:50	OKC 12:20	10%	1%	0.1%	82%
WN 1984 Southwest	LAS 07:45	OKC 12:16	10%	1%	0.1%	no record
F9 1992 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:56	OKC 13:39	25%	7%	0.6%	84%
WN 4160 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:05	OKC 01:35	25%	5%	0.5%	38%
WN 611 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:40	OKC 21:05	34%	6%	0.5%	31%
WN 2402 Southwest	LAS 19:30	OKC 00:00	37%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2356 Southwest	LAS 14:20	OKC 18:50	39%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON