Today: WN 2294 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–37%.

Safest bet today WN 2294 LAS 07:45 → OMA 12:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4338 LAS 15:55 → OMA 20:40 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2294 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:45	OMA 12:25	11%	2%	0.1%	88%
WN 2358 Southwest	LAS 07:50	OMA 12:35	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
G4 73 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 06:35	OMA 11:21	18%	3%	0.4%	86%
WN 4587 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:05	OMA 01:50	27%	6%	0.5%	50%
WN 4499 Southwest	LAS 19:50	OMA 00:34	31%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2270 Southwest	LAS 12:35	OMA 17:19	37%	8%	0.1%	no record
G4 88 Allegiant	LAS 16:41	OMA 21:29	37%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 4338 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:55	OMA 20:40	38%	6%	0.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON